G. Branstator and J. Berner, Linear and Nonlinear Signatures in the Planetary Wave Dynamics of an AGCM: Phase Space Tendencies, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.62, issue.6, pp.1792-1811, 2005.
DOI : 10.1175/JAS3429.1

L. Breiman, Random forests, Machine Learning, vol.45, issue.1, pp.5-32, 2001.
DOI : 10.1023/A:1010933404324

?. , J. Friedman, R. Olshen, and C. Stone, Classification and Regression Trees, 1984.

X. Cheng and J. M. Wallace, Cluster Analysis of the Northern Hemisphere Wintertime 500-hPa Height Field: Spatial Patterns, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.50, issue.16, pp.2674-2696, 1993.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<2674:CAOTNH>2.0.CO;2

S. Corti, A. Giannini, S. Tibaldi, and F. Molteni, Patterns of low-frequency variability in a three-level quasi-geostrophic model, Climate Dynamics, vol.13, issue.12, pp.883-904, 1997.
DOI : 10.1007/s003820050203

D. 'andrea and F. , Extratropical low-frequency variability as a low-dimensional problem. II: Stationarity and stability of large-scale equilibria, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol.47, issue.582, pp.1059-1073, 2002.
DOI : 10.1256/003590002320373201

?. and R. Vautard, Reducing systematic errors by empirically correcting model errors, pp.21-41, 2000.

K. Fraedrich and M. Klauss, On single station forecasting: Sunshine and rainfall Markov chains, Beitr. Phys. Atmos, vol.56, pp.108-134, 1983.

M. Ghil and A. W. Robertson, "Waves" vs. "particles" in the atmosphere's phase space: A pathway to long-range forecasting?, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, pp.2493-2500, 2002.
DOI : 10.1073/pnas.012580899

?. , M. Kimoto, and J. D. Neelin, Nonlinear dynamics and predictability in the atmospheric sciences, Rev. Geophys. U.S. National Report to the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, vol.29, pp.46-55, 1991.

T. Hastie, R. Tibshirani, and J. Friedman, The Elements of Statistical Learning, 2001.

M. Kimoto and M. Ghil, Multiple Flow Regimes in the Northern Hemisphere Winter. Part I: Methodology and Hemispheric Regimes, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.50, issue.16, pp.2625-2643, 1993.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<2625:MFRITN>2.0.CO;2

D. Kondrashov, K. Ide, and M. Ghil, Weather Regimes and Preferred Transition Paths in a Three-Level Quasigeostrophic Model, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.61, issue.5, pp.568-587, 2004.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<0568:WRAPTP>2.0.CO;2

S. Kravtsov, A. W. Robertson, and M. Ghil, -Channel Model, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.62, issue.6, pp.1746-1769, 2005.
DOI : 10.1175/JAS3443.1
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/in2p3-00025489

B. Legras and M. Ghil, Persistent Anomalies, Blocking and Variations in Atmospheric Predictability, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.42, issue.5, pp.433-471, 1985.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1985)042<0433:PABAVI>2.0.CO;2

E. N. Lorenz, Three approaches to atmospheric predictability, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, vol.50, pp.345-349, 1969.

J. Marshall and F. Molteni, Toward a Dynamical Understanding of Planetary-Scale Flow Regimes, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.50, issue.12, pp.1792-1818, 1993.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<1792:TADUOP>2.0.CO;2

P. A. Michelangeli, R. Vautard, and B. Legras, Weather Regimes: Recurrence and Quasi Stationarity, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.52, issue.8, pp.1237-1256, 1995.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052<1237:WRRAQS>2.0.CO;2

K. C. Mo and M. Ghil, Cluster analysis of multiple planetary flow regimes, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.32, issue.D9, pp.10-927, 1988.
DOI : 10.1029/JD093iD09p10927

F. Molteni, Weather regimes and multiple equilibria. Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, J. Holton, J. Cury, and J, 2002.
DOI : 10.1016/b0-12-227090-8/00465-6

J. Pelly and B. Hoskins, How well does the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System predict blocking?, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol.13, issue.590, pp.1683-1703, 2003.
DOI : 10.1256/qj.01.173

W. A. Robinson, A Baroclinic Mechanism for the Eddy Feedback on the Zonal Index, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.57, issue.3, pp.415-422, 2000.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(2000)057<0415:ABMFTE>2.0.CO;2

B. W. Silverman, Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis, 1986.
DOI : 10.1007/978-1-4899-3324-9

P. Smyth, K. Ide, and M. Ghil, Multiple regimes in Northern Hemisphere height fields via mixture model clustering, J. Atmos. Sci, vol.56, pp.729-752, 1999.

D. B. Stephenson, A. Hannachi, and A. O. Neill, On the existence of multiple climate regimes, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol.31, issue.597, pp.583-605, 2004.
DOI : 10.1256/qj.02.146

P. Sura, M. Newman, C. Penland, and P. D. Sardeshmukh, Multiplicative Noise and Non-Gaussianity: A Paradigm for Atmospheric Regimes?, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.62, issue.5, pp.1391-1409, 2005.
DOI : 10.1175/JAS3408.1

S. Tibaldi and F. Molteni, On the operational predictability of blocking, pp.343-365, 1990.

V. Storch, H. , and F. Zwiers, Statistical Analysis in Climate Research, 1999.
DOI : 10.1017/CBO9780511612336