Short-term solar irradiance and irradiation forecasts via different time series techniques: A preliminary study

Cédric Join; Cyril Voyant; Michel Fliess; Marc Muselli; Marie-Laure Nivet; Christophe Paoli; Frédéric Chaxel

Short-term solar irradiance and irradiation forecasts via different time series techniques: A preliminary study

Cédric Join ^{1, 2, 3} Cyril Voyant ^{4, 5} Michel Fliess ^{3, 6} Marc Muselli ⁴ Marie-Laure Nivet ⁴ Christophe Paoli ⁷ Frédéric Chaxel ²

1 NON-A - Non-Asymptotic estimation for online systems

Inria Lille - Nord Europe, CRIStAL - Centre de Recherche en Informatique, Signal et Automatique de Lille (CRIStAL) - UMR 9189

2 CRAN - Centre de Recherche en Automatique de Nancy

3 AL.I.E.N. - ALgèbre pour Identification & Estimation Numériques

4 SPE - Sciences pour l'environnement

5 Unité de Radiothérapie

6 LIX - Laboratoire d'informatique de l'École polytechnique [Palaiseau]

7 Département de Génie Informatique

Abstract : This communication is devoted to solar irradiance and irradiation short-term forecasts, which are useful for electricity production. Several different time series approaches are employed. Our results and the corresponding numerical simulations show that techniques which do not need a large amount of historical data behave better than those which need them, especially when those data are quite noisy.

Keywords : trends quick fluctuations machine learning multilayer perceptron big data. time series electricity production solar irradiance and irradiation big data Meteorological forecasts

Document type :

Conference papers

Domain :

Environmental Sciences / Environmental Engineering

Computer Science [cs] / Machine Learning [cs.LG]

Computer Science [cs] / Databases [cs.DB]

Computer Science [cs] / Neural and Evolutionary Computing [cs.NE]

Statistics [stat] / Machine Learning [stat.ML]

Mathematics [math] / Statistics [math.ST]

Statistics [stat] / Statistics Theory [stat.TH]

Mathematics [math] / Logic [math.LO]

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Short-term solar irradiance and irradiation forecasts via different time series techniques: A preliminary study

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