Ensemble meteorological reconstruction using circulation analogues of 1781–1785

P. Yiou (1, 2) , M. Boichu (3) , R. Vautard (1, 2) , M. Vrac (1, 2) , S. Jourdain (4) , F. Fluteau (5) , L. Menut (3) , Emmanuel Garnier (6)

1 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
2 ESTIMR - Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation
3 LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)
4 DCSC - Direction de la climatologie et des services climatiques
5 IPGP - Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris
6 CRHQ - Centre de recherche d'histoire quantitative

This paper uses a method of atmospheric flow analogues to reconstruct an ensemble of atmospheric vari-ables (namely sea-level pressure, surface temperature and wind speed) between 1781 and 1785. The properties of this ensemble are investigated and tested against observations of temperature. The goal of the paper is to assess whether the atmospheric circulation during the Laki volcanic erup-tion (in 1783) and the subsequent winter were similar to the conditions that prevailed in the winter 2009/2010 and dur-ing spring 2010. We find that the 3 months following the Laki eruption in June 1783 barely had analogues in 2010. The cold winter of 1783/1784 yielded circulation analogues in 2009/2010. The reconstructed surface temperature over land bears significant correlations with local observations, al-though the amplitude of the reconstruction is weaker.

Domains: Sciences of the Universe [physics]; Earth Sciences; Meteorology

P. Yiou, M. Boichu, R. Vautard, M. Vrac, S. Jourdain, et al.. Ensemble meteorological reconstruction using circulation analogues of 1781–1785. Climate of the Past, 2014, 10, pp.797-809. ⟨10.5194/cp-10-797-2014⟩. ⟨hal-01083506⟩