Ensemble meteorological reconstruction using circulation analogues of 1781–1785

Abstract : This paper uses a method of atmospheric flow analogues to reconstruct an ensemble of atmospheric vari-ables (namely sea-level pressure, surface temperature and wind speed) between 1781 and 1785. The properties of this ensemble are investigated and tested against observations of temperature. The goal of the paper is to assess whether the atmospheric circulation during the Laki volcanic erup-tion (in 1783) and the subsequent winter were similar to the conditions that prevailed in the winter 2009/2010 and dur-ing spring 2010. We find that the 3 months following the Laki eruption in June 1783 barely had analogues in 2010. The cold winter of 1783/1784 yielded circulation analogues in 2009/2010. The reconstructed surface temperature over land bears significant correlations with local observations, al-though the amplitude of the reconstruction is weaker.
Document type :
Journal articles
Complete list of metadatas

Cited literature [43 references]  Display  Hide  Download

https://hal-polytechnique.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01083506
Contributor : Denis Roura <>
Submitted on : Monday, November 17, 2014 - 1:42:59 PM
Last modification on : Thursday, May 16, 2019 - 9:15:32 AM
Long-term archiving on : Friday, April 14, 2017 - 1:40:25 PM

File

cp-10-797-2014.pdf
Publisher files allowed on an open archive

Identifiers

Citation

P. Yiou, M. Boichu, R. Vautard, M. Vrac, S. Jourdain, et al.. Ensemble meteorological reconstruction using circulation analogues of 1781–1785. Climate of the Past Discussions, European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2014, 10, pp.797-809. ⟨10.5194/cp-10-797-2014⟩. ⟨hal-01083506⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

1024

Files downloads

226