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Article Dans Une Revue Geophysical Research Letters Année : 2020

Equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by equilibrating climate models

Maria Rugenstein
  • Fonction : Auteur
Jonah Bloch‐johnson
  • Fonction : Auteur
Jonathan Gregory
  • Fonction : Auteur
Timothy Andrews
  • Fonction : Auteur
Thorsten Mauritsen
  • Fonction : Auteur
Chao Li
Thomas L. Frölicher
  • Fonction : Auteur
David Paynter
  • Fonction : Auteur
Gokhan Danabasoglu
  • Fonction : Auteur
Shuting Yang
Long Cao
  • Fonction : Auteur
Gavin A. Schmidt
  • Fonction : Auteur
Ayako Abe‐ouchi
  • Fonction : Auteur
Olivier Geoffroy
  • Fonction : Auteur
Reto Knutti

Résumé

The methods to quantify equilibrium climate sensitivity are still debated. We collect millennial-length simulations of coupled climate models and show that the global mean equilibrium warming is higher than those obtained using extrapolation methods from shorter simulations. Specifically, 27 simulations with 15 climate models forced with a range of CO2 concentrations show a median 17\% larger equilibrium warming than estimated from the first 150 years of the simulations. The spatial patterns of radiative feedbacks change continuously, in most regions reducing their tendency to stabilizing the climate. In the equatorial Pacific, however, feedbacks become more stabilizing with time. The global feedback evolution is initially dominated by the tropics, with eventual substantial contributions from the mid-latitudes. Time-dependent feedbacks underscore the need of a measure of climate sensitivity that accounts for the degree of equilibration, so that models, observations, and paleo proxies can be adequately compared and aggregated to estimate future warming
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Dates et versions

hal-02567464 , version 1 (14-07-2020)

Identifiants

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Maria Rugenstein, Jonah Bloch‐johnson, Jonathan Gregory, Timothy Andrews, Thorsten Mauritsen, et al.. Equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by equilibrating climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 2020, 47 (4), pp.e2019GL083898. ⟨10.1029/2019GL083898⟩. ⟨hal-02567464⟩
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