Solar energy production: Short-term forecasting and risk management

Abstract : Electricity production via solar energy is tackled via short-term forecasts and risk management. Our main tool is a new setting on time series. It allows the definition of "confidence bands" where the Gaussian assumption, which is not satisfied by our concrete data, may be abandoned. Those bands are quite convenient and easily implementable. Numerous computer simulations are presented.
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Cédric Join, Michel Fliess, Cyril Voyant, Frédéric Chaxel. Solar energy production: Short-term forecasting and risk management. 8th IFAC Conference on Manufacturing Modelling, Management & Control (MIM 2016), Jun 2016, Troyes, France. ⟨10.1016/j.ifacol.2016.07.790⟩. ⟨hal-01272152v3⟩

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